Колонка "Валютные торги"

Колонка "Валютные торги" печатается ежедневно в Wail Street Journal в разделе Money and Investing ("Деньги и инвестиции")* Пример публикации приведен ниже.

CURRENCY TRADING Concerns About War Put Pressure on the Dollar \r\nBY GRAINNE MCCARTHY

Dow Jones Newswires

NEW YORK—Having fallen swiftly on the back of some surprisingly weak U.S.

lLPecplc arc positioned for Armageddon on the dollar, hi that scenario, you can get wacky moves," says Paul Podolsky, chief strategist at Fleet Global Markets m Boston.

Investors unsure of the dollar\'s vulnerability to the US. economic data got a resounding wake-up call Friday with the currency tumbling swiftly after the government reported a dismal December payrolls rcpon that fueled concerns about the lingering soft spot dogging the worlds largest economy The dollar hit a fresh three-year trough against the euro, while sliding to its weakest point against the Swiss franc in four years.

In late New York trading Friday, the euro was at $1.0579, up steeply from $1.0488 late Thursday. Against the Swiss franc, the dollar was at 1.3799 francs, down sharply from 1.3912 francs, while sterling was at $1.6084, modestly up from $1.6064. The dollar was at 119.16 yen, modestly lower than 119.30 yen Thursday

Even as Canada reported another remarkably strong month of employment growth, job losses in the U.S. soared to 101,000, far from consensus forecasts for a modest increase of 20,000.

There were clearly some seasonal explanations for the leap, but the report still underscored a view that the sluggish U S. economic recovery isn\'t treating jobs. That potentially bodes ill for ihe dollar at a time when it is already being undermined by war concerns.

"Until Iraq goes away and the outlook for consumer confidence and business spending improves, the dollar is going to remain under pressure," said jay BrysoB, global economist at Wachovia Securities in Charlotte, N.C.

There will cenainly he plenty of economic data this week for dollar investors to sink their teeth into, with the focus most likely on somewhat stronger economic activity and benign inflation.

The U.S. wffl also get Decembers producer-price and consumer-price indexes on Wednesday and Thursday, respectively. The focus for Friday will be squarely on the initial University of Michigan consumer- sentiment report for January, which should provide a glimpse of how confidence is holding up amid growing war jitters.

But aside from the clear significance of much of these data, many analysts expect the dollar to look more to the Pentagon, State Department and, ultimately, the White House for signposts for near-term direction.

As the central emblem m financial markets of the worlds only superpower, the dollar is beset by multiple threats to global stability that are breaking out on several fronts. As well as the situations in North Korea and Iraq, the continuing battle against terrorist network al Qaeda is high on the list of issues facing the Bush administration. The U.S., given its position of global hegemony, has almost by default become the first line of defense in tackling these challenges.

\'Connect the dots, and what emerges is hardly encouraging for the dollar in particular and the financial markets in general.1 said Joseph Quinlan, global economist at Johns Hopkins University

He argues that investors in U.S. assets. while cenainly cognisant of a war risk, may have priced in an overly rosy scenario under which the war on terrorism has already been won, the war against Iraq has already been priced in, and a war on the Korean peninsula is too remote a possibility to take seriously

An upset to this more optimistic picture could weigh more heavily on global capital flows, ultimately depressing the dollar, given the U.S.\'s status as a creditor nation dependent on capital inflows to finance the current account. \r\n Опасения по поводу войны оказывают давление на доллар*

Гренни МакКарти, репортер

Нью-Йорк.

Инвесторы, обеспокоенные неустойчивостью доллара и экономическими показателями США, были ошеломлены в пятницу, когда доллар начал стремительно падать после оглашения правительством пессимистического декабрьского отчета о том, что одна из крупнейших экономик мира медленно движется к топливно-энергетическому кризису. Курс доллара упал до самого низкого уровня за три последних года относительно евро и сполз до самой низкой точки за четыре последних года по отношению к швейцарскому франку.

Даже Канада объявила о небывало высоком росте месячных показателей занятости, в то время как потери рабочих мест в США возросли до 101 тысячи, что в несколько раз превысило прогнозы (составившие лишь 20 тысяч).

Конечно, существовали некоторые сезонные причины, объясняющие скачки показателей, но отчет подчеркнул то, что вялое восстановление экономики США не способствует созданию рабочих мест. Такое состояние дел ослабляет доллар, в то время как его положение и так неустойчиво из-за ожидания войны.

Источник. Wall Street Journal, Monday, January 13, 2003, p. C16. * Сокращенный перевод. — Прим. ред. \\ )